Ridindex Since Inception (05/06/2025) Chart:
Important Note:
I hadn’t realized until now that in the Bloomberg model portfolio tracking function, the hedges were using static weights, while the rest of the portfolio was drifting with market movements. As a result, the SPX hedges effectively lost about 2x the amount originally allocated, distorting the performance attribution. Remember, this was a 100bps allocation on approx. $100m portfolio (reference: https://ridire.substack.com/p/something-smells-fishy ), yet Bloomberg shows essentially a 300bps loss:
Since this discrepancy cannot be retroactively corrected and the model portfolio function on Bloomberg does not account for it, we’ll treat this impact as proxy for fee and liquidity drag for the year going forward and proceed with the analysis as normal. As validation that this is a legitimate error, here is an actual IBKR account where I’ve been running the RidIndex live:
With that clarified, let’s get into the performance:
🏆 Top 5 Contributors This Month:
$TER (+0.39%) – Chiplet test-equipment orders inflect; margin guide raised.
$NVDA (+0.36%) – Relentless AI-infrastructure demand from hyperscalers and cloud buildout.
$TOI (+0.31%) – Sharp rally on payer-mix revision; deep value re-rate.
$LC 01/16/26 C15 (+0.32%) – Repriced sharply as rate cut odds shifted.
$TGEN (+0.25%) – Microcap co-gen name rallies on margin expansion and new project wins.
💣 Largest Drawdowns This Month:
$SPY 08/15/25 P540 (-1.80%) – Index resilience + vol crush hit deep OTM hedge.
$TRUEB SS (-0.66%) – Growth deceleration and Europe macro weakness.
$RBLX (Short) (-0.61%) – DAU optimism overpowers monetization concerns.
$EXE (-0.20%) – Operational hiccups in Canadian basin; lower production guide.
PDX SF (-0.07%) – Light Q2 release slate and delayed flagship title rollout.
🔍 Watchlist & Tactical Pipeline:
We’re actively monitoring the following themes for potential entry:
Secular Compounders & Dip Buys
We’re eyeing quality compounders with enduring moats dislocated by macro or sentiment. These are candidates for core build-up on dips.
Luxury Consumption Barbell (Long/Short)
We’re setting up a bifurcated luxury trade: long global prestige brands with durable pricing power, while shorting names vulnerable to aspirational fragility or over-earning in the post-COVID cycle.
Education & Upskilling (Long/Short)
A re-emerging divergence: for-profit vocational and trade education with cash generative models vs. structurally flawed or legacy models.
Contra Human Capital Theme (Japan Focus)
Shrinking workforce meets succession risk and consolidation: we're building a contra-basket of people focused solutions, centered on "training for the trainers."
Structural Shorts
We’re identifying overstretched SaaS, consumer tech, and legacy media names whose fundamentals can’t justify current multiple expansion. Watchlist includes several high-beta names.
Final Notes
The Ridindex is built for real exposure, sized with conviction, and hedged with flexibility. Trades go live in real time, performance is tracked and transparent. Next review lands after August close, see you next month. Until then, stay sharp.
Disclaimer:
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