I expect the Trump administration will aggressively restore U.S. energy dominance, particularly emphasizing natural gas production and LNG export expansion. Key policy levers likely include streamlined permitting, regulatory rollbacks, accelerated approval of LNG terminals, and reduced emphasis on renewable mandates. Combined with structural secular demand from AI-driven data centers and robust global LNG markets, these factors establish the foundation for a sustained U.S. natural gas bull cycle.
Trump’s recently announced tariff framework further solidifies this conviction. While the tariffs are structured to penalize countries running large trade surpluses with the U.S., they implicitly incentivize these nations to balance trade by importing U.S. energy. Natural gas stands uniquely positioned:
U.S. LNG remains globally competitive even after accounting for shipping costs
European markets in particular remain cost-advantaged for U.S. supply
Switching costs are low for most industrial and sovereign buyers
From their perspective, the logic is simple: If access to the U.S. consumer (the most valuable in the world) comes with conditions, buying U.S. gas is a strategic and economical way to comply.
To express this thesis, I build a layered portfolio targeting both direct and derivative beneficiaries. While all trades are thematically linked, each is expressed independently with its own risk/reward and catalyst path.
High-Conviction Anchor: Expand Energy Corp (EXE) – Long
The merger of Chesapeake and Southwestern into Expand Energy Corp (EXE) has formed the largest U.S. pure-play natural gas company with unmatched scale, access to Gulf export hubs, and cost competitiveness. This makes EXE the clearest vehicle for expressing a bullish structural view on U.S. gas exports in a Trump-driven policy regime.
“We expect to achieve ~$400 million in synergies in 2025 and $500 million by year-end 2026.” The rapid realization of integration benefits will drive substantial cost per Mcf reductions, positioning EXE below key breakeven thresholds.
“Productive capacity wells will generate ~$225 million more FCF vs. if turned online in 2024.” Deferred production grants EXE the flexibility to time volumes to coincide with peak seasonal LNG demand or geopolitical premium pricing.
“Guiding to 7.5 Bcf/d by 2026.” This output level represents nearly 10% of total U.S. dry gas supply, meaning EXE will disproportionately benefit from any policy-induced demand uplift, especially from non-OECD buyers seeking secure LNG offtake.
“NG3 pipeline comes online late 2025... gives us 2.5 Bcf/day access to Gillis and Gulf demand centers.” This infrastructure unlock is important, as it removes legacy transport bottlenecks and ties EXE’s molecules to the global LNG arbitrage.
“Layered in 740 Bcf of hedges into 2027 at $3.75/$5.10 avg floor/ceiling.” Their multi-year hedge structure ensures downside protection without fully capping upside, especially in a rising forward strip regime.
In aggregate, EXE offers size, scale, and balance sheet stability all tied directly to an asymmetric thesis on global gas price convergence and American export volume acceleration.
LNG Infrastructure Diversification: Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp (CCEC) – Long
While EXE offers upstream torque, CCEC provides low-volatility exposure to LNG transport economics. The company functions as a capital-returning LNG shipping utility with contracted cash flows and limited spot exposure.
“Revenue backlog of $2.5 billion... $2.2 billion from LNG assets.” This backlog insulates earnings from short-term freight rate volatility, ensuring that any gains in terminal throughput are monetized over time without headline cyclicality.
“We remain focused on improving the liquidity in our share... initiated an ATM program.” This reflects corporate intent to improve equity access, which can eventually expand institutional ownership and reduce volatility.
As global LNG markets tighten, due to both demand resurgence and vessel scarcity, CCEC’s modern fleet and disciplined commercial strategy provide reliable exposure to a trade route set to expand under Trump’s pro-export regime.
Core Natural Gas Exposure: Hess Corporation (HES) – Long
Hess provides high-quality, diversified exposure to liquids and gas production growth, particularly from Guyana and the Gulf of Mexico.
“Net production was 476,000 boepd in the first quarter of both 2025 and 2024.” This flat headline masks a shift in mix toward higher-value offshore barrels, which command stronger realizations.
“Yellowtail... is on track to start up in the third quarter of 2025 with an initial gross production capacity of approximately 250,000 barrels per day.” Offshore Guyana remains one of the highest-return projects globally; political alignment under Trump accelerates capex efficiency and operator sentiment.
“E&P capital and exploratory expenditures were $1,085 million, compared with $927 million in the prior-year quarter.” Rising investment signals confidence in project economics and cycle positioning.
Hess is uniquely levered to geopolitical themes, particularly U.S. hemispheric energy leadership, and will directly benefit from higher gas liquids-linked pricing and global risk-on sentiment.
Second-Order Beneficiary: Core Natural Resources (CNR) – Long
As natural gas prices rise on export volume growth, domestic utilities rebalance generation toward coal, a dynamic not widely priced into current forward curves.
“We estimate that generator stockpiles in the east are approaching target levels and, in select instances, have fallen into the critical zone.” This creates an urgent restocking imperative which should support spot and contract pricing in the coming months.
“Resumed development work with continuous miners... nearly two months earlier than originally indicated.”
“$1 billion share repurchase authorization targeting 75% of free cash flow return.” This capital return posture reflects both confidence in the asset base and a clear intent to reward shareholders amid cyclical tailwinds.
CNR is not a secular growth story, it is a high-beta cyclical name uniquely positioned to benefit from a pricing crossover that advantages thermal coal in marginal power generation.
Global LNG Trade Leverage: Flex LNG (FLNG) – Long
Flex LNG offers leveraged exposure to U.S. LNG volumes via its fleet of modern carriers, most of which are locked into long-term charters with high-quality counterparties.
“We are declaring... dividend of $0.75 per share taking the dividend for 2024 to $3, implying a running yield of about 12%.” This yield is covered by contracted cash flows, making FLNG one of the few LNG-exposed equities offering both growth and income.
“We have a lot of backlog which can weather us through this difficult market.” Charter coverage decouples financial results from spot market noise, yet retains upside as contracts reprice higher.
“92% of fleet days for 2025 already contracted.” This level of visibility provides both earnings defensibility and strategic flexibility.
FLNG is thus a pure expression of LNG volume throughput, de-risked by duration and enhanced by dividend discipline.
Strategic Barbell: First Solar (FSLR) – Long
FSLR’s unique position as a U.S.-based, vertically integrated solar manufacturer makes it a protectionist winner, even under a fossil-forward administration.
“Tariffs of 26%, 24%, and 46% applicable to India, Malaysia, and Vietnam... create a significant economic headwind for competitors.” These barriers effectively raise ASP floors for FSLR, improving margin resilience.
“Initial data indicates that the enhanced energy profile expected from a superior temperature response and improved bifaciality of our CuRe technology is being realized.” These tech advantages support performance-based pricing in utility-scale RFPs.
“Our US presence alone is projected to support over 30,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs.” This geopolitical footprint enhances FSLR’s eligibility for domestic content incentives, making it a key vendor in any post-IRA landscape.
As a strategic barbell, FSLR hedges the broader portfolio against downside in fossil-linked exposures, while remaining aligned with protectionist policy.
Structurally Disadvantaged Shorts
Antero Resources (AR) – Short
AR’s core disadvantage lies in its inability to participate meaningfully in LNG-linked arbitrage due to Appalachian location and pipeline limitations.
“Firm transport strategy is limited to regional buyers; upside from Gulf exports is minimal.” This quote from their own disclosure highlights the structural disconnect.
AR’s continued exposure to oversupplied in-basin hubs like Dominion South and TCO keeps realized prices depressed even as Henry Hub and JKM surge.
In a bifurcated pricing environment, where Gulf-connected gas prices diverge upward, AR remains tied to the bottom rung of the value chain.
NRG Energy (NRG) – Short
NRG’s margin structure faces dual compression: input price inflation from LNG-linked regional tightness and limited pass-through ability in retail-heavy geographies.
“We are unlocking upside opportunities by... signing LOIs with data center developers and advancing 1.5 GW of brownfield development.” These plans are capital-intensive and unlikely to deliver immediate ROI.
“Texas earnings... $150 million higher YoY despite milder weather.” A one-time tailwind unlikely to persist as structural margin compression reasserts.
As LNG export terminals siphon regional gas supply, NRG’s reliance on merchant gas-fired generation becomes an Achilles heel.
Summary
This refined portfolio expresses a conviction view on the Trump energy resurgence, centered around rising U.S. natural gas export volumes rather than a domestic price spike. It reflects the belief that Trump’s proposed tariff structure will encourage trade partners to reduce their deficits by importing U.S. energy, with natural gas being the most practical and economically viable channel.
Model Portfolio Additions:
2% EXE: High-conviction upstream natural gas champion with unmatched Gulf access
1% CCEC: Contract-driven LNG transport proxy with resilient cash flows
2% HES: Offshore growth operator with political and geopolitical leverage
2% CNR: Coal exposure for marginal generation gains under elevated gas pricing
1% FLNG: LNG shipping vehicle with long-term coverage and yield
1% FSLR: Barbell hedge benefiting from tariff-driven ASP support
2% each (short) AR and NRG: Structurally impaired domestic plays disadvantaged in a high-export regime
Risk Levels: Given the impact of geopolitical events on this theme we will be taking profits and losses on a purely contextual basis, any position closures will be clearly disclosed in the subscriber chat when they occur.
These positions are part of our illustrative model portfolio and is presented for informational purposes only. It does not constitute personalized investment advice.
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Ridire Research is an independent research publication operated by Ridire Research LLC and affiliated with a private fund, an Exempt Reporting Adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Ridire Research is not registered as an investment adviser and does not provide personalized investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice.
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